Beyond Hot Air is a conversation about the green transition and the minerals required to make it happen. As a group of researchers and practitioners, when we first got together to discuss this topic, we realised that in different fields and disciplines (geology, social science, industry, politics) there was a lot of misleading information and empty promises, and a real lack of straight, honest talk or genuine listening on all sides – from governments to companies to civil society organisations. In other words, there is a lot of ‘hot air’ about the ultimate hot-air topic – global warming.
So now we are seeking to go ‘beyond hot air’, by starting up a constructive and collaborative ‘big conversation’ about the things that people are avoiding talking about or not listening to each other about. It’s about comparing the promises of the green transition against its feasibility, i.e., the likelihood of actually making current plans happen in a sustainable and fair manner. Because, beyond all the rhetoric about the possibility of a low-carbon future, the whole debate around the green transition and minerals just doesn’t seem to stack up.
The reality of mining minerals for the green transition, especially those classified as critical raw materials, is that there is a limited supply and excess demand, while the mining of these minerals poses the same social and environmental risks of conventional mineral mining. Although the International Energy Agency (IEA) concludes in its 2021 assessment of the role of minerals in the green transition that ‘there is no shortage of resources worldwide’, it acknowledges that supply could be undermined by price volatility, geopolitical influences, environmental and social impacts, and long lead-in times in getting minerals to market. Research indicates, for instance, that discrepancies between countries’ identified mineral resources and their ‘production-readiness’ could lead to severe delays in meeting key climate-change mitigation targets, while also exacerbating inequalities in the green transition process.
Yet politicians are promising their citizens that we can mine and recycle our way to a genuinely low-carbon future, while maintaining our consumerist way of living. Demand for minerals is growing rapidly, yet many are not questioning this increasing demand or the nature of the socio-technical transformation that is taking place. Debates revolve around access to lithium for electric car batteries rather than reducing the use of private cars, for instance. The European Union presents its flagship Green Deal as a way to combat climate change and achieve a carbon-neutral future, but has been criticised for not tackling the overconsumption that is at the heart of the climate crisis. E-mobility and green energy might be impossible to expand as we would like, because of a simple lack of available resources. For instance, efforts are being made to develop lithium battery recycling capabilities. But, first of all, lithium batteries are notoriously difficult to recycle, while currently there aren’t enough batteries on the market to recycle.
Mining for the green transition is promoted as a ‘good’ thing – because it aims to tackle climate change. Yet the huge challenges around human rights and mining are the same as before, with ‘transition minerals’ (unlike fossil fuels) being located disproportionately in developing countries. At the same time, there is a great deal of unease about China being the dominant geopolitical power in this space: for instance, it already supplies 98% of Europe’s rare earths.
European leaders recognise that, in order to meet the goals of the Green Deal, and avoid over-reliance on China, Europe will have to start mining in its own backyard. The CEO of Swedish mining company Boliden is quoted as saying that while he understands Europeans not wanting to see more mining in Europe, they also need to recognise that “while Europe extracts just 3 percent of most raw materials, it consumes 20 percent of nearly all of them”.
Transition minerals can be extracted within those countries where demand for them is high, but there has been considerable local opposition to this prospect in several European countries. In Portugal, for instance, anti-lithium mining protests triggered a corruption investigation into the prime minister’s handling of lithium and hydrogen projects, leading to his resignation in November 2023. In Serbia, prior to the 2022 elections, the government was forced to cancel Rio Tinto’s Jadar lithium mining project, under pressure from local protestors. The re-elected president has since called this a big mistake, while Rio Tinto continues to buy up land in Serbia, and environmental groups – united in the fight against lithium mining across the country – continue to organise public protests against ‘green extractivism’.
In northern Europe, the green transition has become a narrative to promote new mineral projects (as well as wind farms) on the traditional lands of Indigenous peoples, without adequate consultation and consent. The Indigenous Sámi, whose traditional lands stretch across four countries of (sub-)Arctic Europe, call this new run for renewable and non-renewable resources for the green transition – without sufficient Sámi involvement in decisions or self-determination in land use ‘green colonialism’.
So the question of mining for transition minerals ‘closer to home’ for those consuming the most has become a political hot potato for many. Given the high levels of social tension around the topic, politicians in Europe and beyond are reluctant to encourage open debate about the potential opportunities and challenges of mining closer to home for ‘transition minerals’, while political positions on mining for the transition remain inherently ideological. As a result, debates remain poorly informed, highly emotional, and often polarised.
We are hoping that the Beyond Hot Air initiative will create space for different stakeholders to have some of these difficult conversations; to help people move out of their comfort zones and think about the ‘green’ transition in its full complexity. There is no simple solution to climate change, but through better conversations we might be able to contribute to more fairness and sustainability in dealing with these pressing issues.
